Pathways to improving the school stock of England towards net zero

Abstract

A disaggregated (school-level) analysis of the retrofit potential of primary and secondary schools of England is presented, using data from a highly detailed database of the energy use and characteristics of the school stock. The overall carbon emissions reduction potential for the stock is explored under different packages of retrofit measures, as well as how the rollout of those measures between the present and 2050 might shape the pathways towards net zero. Even with a fixed set of assumptions about what measures are implemented and at what rate, it is shown that decisions about the deployment process can greatly affect the annual and cumulative emissions of the overall stock over the coming decades. Under certain scenarios, decisions about the criteria used to define the school retrofit order can result in a doubling of cumulative emissions by 2050, or impact whether the interim 2035 target is met. <em><strong>Policy relevance</strong></em> The performance of England’s primary and secondary schools, and how it might improve in the context of long-term carbon emissions reduction targets, is shown. The paper quantifies how decisions about the deployment of retrofits determine the pathways that the stock will take towards net zero. The analysis shows considerable emissions reductions are feasible, through a mix of building envelope improvements, conversion to electric heating, rooftop photovoltaics and aided by projected improvements to the grid. However, the results show that—even with a high deployment rate (650 schools/year to retrofit all schools by 2050)—the approach taken to deploying those retrofits (<em>i.e.</em> the policies and guidance that dictate which schools are prioritised for improvement) will determine the long-term performance of the overall stock and whether or not interim emissions targets can be met.