PATHWAYS TO GRADUATE SCHOOL: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON NATIONAL LONGITUDINAL DATA

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn response to widespread concern about the status of graduate schools in the United States, this study was undertaken to investigate: What proportions of high school seniors enroll in graduate school or professional school. What proportions of students make certain choices at each of five critical stages in educational development from high school to graduate or professional school. Whether the proportions making these choices differ for major subgroups of the student population. How the choices at one stage relate to choices at others. Whether the proportions for students who reach graduate school differ for those reaching professional school. Whether the early characteristics of eventual graduate students differ from those of eventual professional school students. What implications the results of the study might have for the number of students expected to enroll in graduate schools in the late 1980s. The date analysis relied primarily on data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, in which a national probability sample of approximately 22,500 high school seniors was surveyed in 1972 and then resurveyed approximately every two years until 1979. Analysis of data from a survey of 1980 high school seniors provided data on the initial posthigh school choices of a recent cohort.The data analysis indicated that: By 1979, 3% of the 1972 high school seniors had enrolled full time in graduate school, and 3% had enrolled full time in professional school. Students reaching graduate or professional school tended to enroll in more demanding high school academic programs and were noticeably more likely to enroll first in four‐year colleges after high school graduation. The distribution of males and females in the pathways and their educational attainment were similar, except that appreciably fewer females enrolled in professional schools. Almost as high a proportion of Black students as of White students enrolled initially in four‐year colleges, but a lower proportion received bachelor's degrees. Students reaching graduate school tended to show approximately the same pattern of choices as students reaching professional school; the professional school students had somewhat higher test scores and educational aspirations, although the differences were small. Many uncertainties precluded predictions about their absolute numbers, but it is likely that the proportion of future postbaccalaureate students who are female and the proportions from minority populations will be appreciably higher.