Pathways to Conflict Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA)

Abstract

Chapter three provides a medium-N, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) analysis of the empirical record, assessing the outcomes of all 20 militarised interstate disputes that have taken place in the post-Cold War era. QCA is the most proper method given that the focus of this study is on several conditions and their complex relationship. QCA results show that 9 of the 20 cases of asymmetric militarised disputes resulted in war, confirming the importance of this phenomena. Moreover, the analysis reveals that not a single condition is both necessary and sufficient to explain the minor power's choice to go to war. However, the domestic crisis seems to be of particular importance, as it is a necessary condition for the outcome to occur. While this is somewhat expected, more surprising results indicate that domestic crisis is only sufficient when occurring together with a stable regime and either foreign support or window of opportunity. Likewise, regimes with anomalous beliefs tend to ignore the importance of conditions such as foreign support or window of opportunity. Given the limited number of cases, these results can be further strengthened through case studies, that is, process tracing and counterfactual assessment.