Abstract
Ambitious actions focused on rapid defossilisation of today’s energy systems require greater urgency, in order to avert unmanageable impacts of climate change. Transitioning to a cost-effective and carbon-neutral energy system in Nigeria and across the globe by the second half of this century is vital. This study explores a paradigmatic pathway to a fully sustainable energy system for Nigeria, by 2050. The research approach is to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% renewable energy based power system for Nigeria, using a linear optimisation model. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year. The country researched is structured into 6 sub-regions. The optimisation for each of the 5-year time periods is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050 for all energy technologies involved. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 54 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 for the power sector in the Best Policy Scenario and further declines to 35 €/MWh with sector coupling. Whereas, the cost of electricity increased to 75 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emission cost. The results clearly reveal that integrating a renewable energy technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is the most competitive and least cost electricity option for Nigeria in the mid-term future, as indicated by the Best Policy Scenario. In particular, the compatibility and predominant role of solar photovoltaics and batteries is paramount towards a rapid transition of Nigeria’s power sector, due to highly favourable economics. This study concludes with the implications of a stable and supportive policy environment, transitioning to a defossiliated energy system in Nigeria could be achieved in the mid-term future. This study is the first of its kind in full hourly resolution for Nigeria, and demonstrates the need for carrying out detailed analyses in examining gaps in energy transition understanding based on various policy constraints for developing countries in comparable climates.
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