Abstract
AbstractBiomass is responsible for 25% of the primary energy supply in Brazil. However, future biomass demand will be influenced by many factors. This study evaluates potential pathways for the utilization of biomass in Brazil until 2050, while considering novel biobased sectors (renewable jet fuel and biochemicals), resource competition, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas other least‐cost optimization models assess biobased options to meet energy and chemicals demand in Brazil to a limited extent, this study provides a detailed breakdown of biomass feedstock, including an extensive portfolio of biomass conversion technologies. A least‐cost optimization model is used to assess the demand for energy and chemicals, and the competition between biomass and other climate‐mitigation measures such as renewable power generation technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy efficiency. Varied over the three scenarios, 86–96% of the sustainable biomass supply potential is used. Under more stringent mitigation targets, novel biomass conversion technologies start to play an important role: Biobased electricity production with CCS, jet fuel production from lignocellulosic biomass, and chemicals are partly produced from ethanol and bio‐naphtha. The modeling framework provides a transparent view of which type of biomass can be used for which specific purpose. It is therefore an interesting tool for future research, for example to examine the dynamic interaction with demand for land. © 2019 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Highlights
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase in the coming decades if no action is taken
The aim of this study is to explore the role that biomass can play in meeting the demand for energy and chemicals along with the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil up to 2050
The use of biomass will continue to play an important role in the total primary energy supply (TPES) in the coming decades (Fig. 3(a))
Summary
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase in the coming decades if no action is taken. Biomass is expected to play a critical role in preventing global warming from exceeding the 2 °C limit as it has significant GHG mitigation potential,[1,2] especially in the transport sector, by replacing fossil fuels.[3] Cost-efficient trajectories show that large-scale deployment of modern bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and their combination (BECCS) are key mitigation strategies to supply energy, mitigate GHG emissions, and to reach this target.[1,4,5] Brazil has a large biomass potential,[6,7] a long history of producing bioethanol from sugarcane,[8,9,10] and is currently the second largest producer worldwide.[11] Brazils longterm energy-system evolution may rely increasingly on biomass because of its large potential at a relatively low-cost, compared to other renewable resources.[12,13]. CCS technologies included, and their BECCS, ethanol distilleries (early BECCS (late development), development development) ethanol distilleries (early)
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