Abstract
The abundance and distribution of marine fishes is influenced by environmental conditions, predator–prey relationships, multispecies interactions, and direct human impacts, such as fishing. The adaptive response of the system depends on its structure and the pathways that link environmental factors to the taxon in question. The “Star Diagram” is a socio-ecological model of marine ecosystems that depicts the general pathways between climate, fish, and fisheries, and their intersection with climate policy and resource management. We illustrate its use by identifying the key factors, pathways and drivers that influence walleye pollock, crab, and sockeye salmon, under a warming scenario on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. This approach predicts that all three species will see reduced populations under a long-term warming scenario. Going forward, the challenge to managers is to balance the magnitude of the effect of harvest and the adaptability of their management system, with the scale and degree of resilience and the behavioral, physiological, or evolutionary adaptation of the ecosystem and its constituents. The Star Diagram provides a novel conceptual construct that managers can use to visualize and integrate the various aspects of the system into a holistic, socio-ecological management framework.
Highlights
Variability in the abundance and distribution of marine fishes is influenced by environmental conditions, predator–prey relationships, multispecies interactions and direct human impacts, such as fishing
To illustrate the utility of the Star Diagram, we present three case studies from the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS), where the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC, one of eight U.S regional councils established by the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act in 1976 to manage fisheries in the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone) is implementing a Fishery Ecosystem Plan (FEP) to help further ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management (EBAFM) for the Bering Sea, where a lot of new understanding has been gained by ecosystem level research, conducted over the last decade
Our examination on the potential effects of different biological, physical and chemical parameters, through the Star Diagram, qualitatively concurs with the overall prediction of Mueter et al [130], who estimated a decline in pollock recruitment of 32–58% by 2050, assuming an increasing warming trend in the Bering Sea
Summary
Variability in the abundance and distribution of marine fishes is influenced by environmental conditions, predator–prey relationships, multispecies interactions and direct human impacts, such as fishing. Conceptual models have more explicitly incorporated anthropogenic effects and drivers for a coastal system in Washington State [13], and the California Current system [14], and there has been a move towards integrated ecosystem assessment models that conceptually include a diversity of direct and indirect anthropogenic effects on commercial fish populations and their habitat [15]. These approaches vary in their exact configuration but are similar in that they show linkages in a web-like configuration; typically with some weighting of these linkages, sometimes scenariobased. We use this new framework to identify the key factors, pathways and attributes that influence the key commercial species of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), crab (including Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi), snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus), red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus)), and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), under a warming scenario on the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf
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