Pathway for the low-carbon consumption pattern transition of residents in six eastern coastal provinces of China: using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis with panel data.

Abstract

China has embarked on society-wide emission reduction initiatives to tackle the growing decarbonization pressures on national economic and social development. The low-carbon consumption pattern transition of the residential sector is viewed as a crucial impetus that will drive society toward sustainable development. However, how such a consumption transition can be facilitated remains unclear. By adopting 2015-2019 provincial panel data, this study assesses the carbon emissions associated with the consumption patterns of residents in Eastern China and further explores the causal relationships between policy and socioeconomic factors as well as the formation of a low-carbon consumption base using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method (fsQCA). This study explores five equivalent recipes that achieve the expected low-carbon consumption base and then classifies them into market-driven (M1) and tertiary-driven (M2) recipes. Longitudinal analysis based on the between consistency (BECONS) and the within consistency (WICONS) values reveals that the tertiary-driven pathways remain highly stable across time, whereas those pathways that heavily rely on market interventions may be more applicable in certain cases. Accelerating the low-carbon consumption transition via the explored pathways is expected to exert pressure on the production transition, and this study provides suggestions for regions with varied development levels to balance the trade-off between China's social development and its decarbonization targets.