Abstract
A zero-emission pathway for the Nordic and Baltic region in Europe is described based on the comprehensive policy and scenario analyses, accompanied by energy system modelling. The analyses show that a least-cost strategy would massively employ renewable energy, particularly in the power sector. Through strong coupling across energy sectors and countries, electricity would play a central role in the decarbonization of the main energy sectors. In particular power-to-heat conversion, where heat storage appears important in addition to existing hydropower. Technical and regulatory barriers in front of increased sector coupling and flexibility were identified, and policy measures are proposed to overcome these. In addition to a high carbon price, dynamic tariffs and taxation of electricity would be important to allow market signals for flexibility to reach end-users. A stronger power transmission connection from the Nordics to the mainland-Europe and the United Kingdom would be beneficial for the emission reductions and renewable energy use. The transition pathway analysis points out socio-technical issues such as social acceptance of large-scale new infrastructures (e.g., wind, cables). The energy system optimizations indicate that most of the investments needed for the zero-emission pathway until 2050 would take place already by 2030.
Highlights
Mitigation of climate change according to the Paris Climate Agreement from 2015 will require very strong measures and enforcing policies in the coming decades
In a market-based or market-orientated approach, the energy production volumes and prices are basically determined by the demand and supply of energy aiming at least-cost solutions, as opposed to a government-controlled approach in which public sector interventions could distort prices or lead to preferential solutions [29]; Balmorel energy system model [30] for comprehensive energy system and energy market simulations to turn the scenarios into necessary energy system changes; Energy system flexibility as key strategy to enable large-scale variable renewable electricity used with emphasis on sector coupling; Identification of socio-technical implications, and defining further policy measures to realize the path to carbon-neutrality; Survey of regulatory and technical barriers against flexibility
The main strategy to facilitate the zero-carbon energy transition was focusing on large-scale renewable energy schemes accompanied by sector coupling of energy markets across the Nordic-Baltic to increase the flexibility of the energy necessary to adopt variable renewable electricity at large scale
Summary
Mitigation of climate change according to the Paris Climate Agreement from 2015 will require very strong measures and enforcing policies in the coming decades. The technological change required will be a major challenge as over 80% of all energy is still based on fossil fuels [1,2]. The recent report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [3] has alerted politicians, businesses, and the public about the urgency of stricter policy measures to cut carbon emissions. In spite of the urgency to reduce CO2 emissions, the European Union has so far failed to find unanimity to commit to climate neutrality by 2050 [4]. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 will require a complete technological change in the ways energy is produced, but this will encompass major societal changes, turning the clean energy transition into a major socio-technical transition [5]. The political measures in the transition have a link to the sustainable development goals, two of which being directly linked to energy (SDG7, SDG13) [6]
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