Abstract
Dutch flood management policy was for a long time dominated by a protection-oriented approach. However, in the last 10 years a more risk-oriented approach has gained ground, denoted by the introduction of the concept of multilayered safety in 2009 in the National Water Plan. Since then, the dominant policy coalition focusing on resistance has found itself competing with a growing community that emphasizes the importance of resilience. In this paper we analyze the process of policy learning in Dutch flood risk management toward a more resilient paradigm, and the resulting outcomes in terms of regime change and stability. To understand the actual degree of change we unpack the mechanisms of path dependency characterizing the current flood policy regime and how they influence the impact of policy learning in terms of regime change. We conclude that specific mechanisms of path dependency, for example, the existing power asymmetries between competing coalitions and the intricate complexity of flood policies, prevent institutional change, but cannot prevent ideas about resilience slowly gaining more impact.
Highlights
EXPLAINING GRADUAL CHANGE IN DUTCH FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT The Netherlands is well known for its long history of flood defence (Mostert 2006, Verkerk and Van Buuren 2013)
To understand the actual degree of change we unpack the mechanisms of path dependency characterizing the current flood policy regime and how they influence the impact of policy learning in terms of regime change
MECHANISMS OF PATH-DEPENDENCY There are serious indications that the Dutch focus on structural flood protection is broadened to include aspects of water-robust planning and risk reduction. This evolution contributes to the resilience of flood risk management and reduces the exclusive reliance on hard infrastructure
Summary
EXPLAINING GRADUAL CHANGE IN DUTCH FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT The Netherlands is well known for its long history of flood defence (Mostert 2006, Verkerk and Van Buuren 2013). In this paper we analyze the gradual policy shift in Dutch flood risk management toward a more resilient paradigm, and the resulting outcomes in terms of regime change and stability (Wison 2000). Politicians normally want to bind their successors and they are compelled to bind themselves by removing certain options “from their future menu”(Pierson 2000:262) He underlines that the absence or weakness of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competition (between, for example, different policy paradigms) and mechanisms for learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors; and the strong status quo bias generally built into political institutions, contribute to the path dependency of policies and politics. Following Streeck and Thelen’s (2005) typology, we can make a distinction between the process of change and the result of institutional change (Table 2)
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