Path dependence, stigmergy, and memetic reification in the formation of the 27 Club myth

Abstract

The "27 Club" refers to the widespread legend that notable people, particularly musicians, are unusually likely to die at age 27. A 2011 inquiry in The BMJ showed this is not the case, dismissing the 27 Club as a myth. We expand on this discourse by demonstrating that although the existence of the phenomenon cannot be empirically validated, it is real in its consequences. Using Wikipedia data, we show that while age 27 does not hold greater risk of mortality for notable persons, those who died at 27 are as a group exceptionally notable compared to those who died at other young ages. The 27 Club legend originated from a statistically improbable event circa 1970, wherein four superstar musicians died within the span of 2 y all at age 27. This coincidence captured the public imagination such that our fascination with the 27 Club brought itself into being, producing greater interest in those who died at age 27 than would have been otherwise. This demonstrates path dependence in cultural evolution, whereby an effectively random event evolves into a narrative that shapes otherwise unrelated events and thus the way we make and interpret history.