Path dependence in net migration during the ICT boom and two other growth periods: the case of Finland, 1980-2013

Abstract

This paper examines the path dependence of net migration surpluses and deficits by Finnish municipalities in the period of 33 years. Such spatial clustering revealed by spatial autocorrelation represents the spatial formations in which the development indicated by migration is statistically similar over the municipal borders. The results of survival analysis indicate that the chronic centripetal tendency of development generates higher path probabilities of a municipality staying in a surplus formation located in the main urban regions and an increased lock-in tendency compared with deficit formations in peripheries. Thus, the growth processes seem to translate into the self-reinforcing spatial formations of growth and decline in population, production and regional competitiveness suspended by economic downturns and recessions, and so this path dependence is cyclic and recurring, which means that paths constitute relatively short pulses. In the great surge of Information and Communication Technology industries in the 1990s, the spatial formations of migration were higher in volume and path-dependent, but against expectations, spatially less stable compared with more modest growth periods.