Path dependence and path break-out in the electricity sector

Abstract

Path dependence is a key mechanism that holds socio-technical systems in their current development trajectories. In sustainability transitions research a broad conception of path dependence prevails, which covers a variety of historical barriers to transformation. We advocate for a more narrow conception of path dependence that focuses on the underlying self-reinforcing mechanisms. We introduce theoretical work from organisation studies into transition research to conceptualise path dependence at the level of socio-technical systems and organisations, and furthermore elaborate on the phenomenon of path break-out. Based on a literature review of European electricity transitions, we analyse how self-reinforcing mechanisms are weakening leading to path break-out. We identify two modes of path break-out. First, path dissolution is a result of exogenous shocks and unintentional weakening of self-reinforcing mechanisms. Second, path breaking is a result of an intentional attempt to change the existing patterns, which weakens the self-reinforcing mechanisms.