Abstract
Global sea-level rise has been drawing increasingly greater attention in recent years, as it directly impacts the livelihood and sustainable development of humankind. Our research focuses on identifying causal factors and pathways on sea level changes (both global and regional) and subsequently predicting the magnitude of such changes. To this end, we have designed a novel analysis pipeline including three sequential steps: (1) a dynamic structural equation model (dSEM) to identify pathways between the global mean sea level (GMSL) and various predictors, (2) a vector autoregression model (VAR) to quantify the GMSL changes due to the significant relations identified in the first step, and (3) a generalized additive model (GAM) to model the relationship between regional sea level and GMSL. Historical records of GMSL and other variables from 1992 to 2020 were used to calibrate the analysis pipeline. Our results indicate that greenhouse gases, water, and air temperatures, change in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet mass, sea ice, and historical sea level all play a significant role in future sea-level rise. The resulting 95% upper bound of the sea-level projections was combined with a threshold for extreme flooding to map out the extent of sea-level rise in coastal communities using a digital coastal tracker.
Highlights
Since the industrial age, global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise has become a persistent trend that has greatly accelerated within the last two and a half decades [1]
Various predictors, (2) a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) to quantify the global mean sea level (GMSL) changes due to the significant relations identified in the first step, and (3) a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to model the relationship between regional sea level (RSL) and GMSL
The data validated a significant pathway from Greenhouse Gas increase to Air Temperature increase, to Water Temperature increase, to Sea Ice Extent, to Sum Mass, and subsequently, to Global
Summary
Global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise has become a persistent trend that has greatly accelerated within the last two and a half decades [1]. This is largely due to thermal expansion, or increased temperature leading to a greater volume of water per unit mass, and the melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps [2]. High tide floods are becoming more frequent and reaching farther inland [4]. Many large cities located along coastal regions are likely to suffer drastic socioeconomic impacts from sea-level rise and high tide flooding. Home to over 634 million people [5], are likely to face increased flooding that would devastate homes, lives, and communities, as seen in recent major flooding occurrences in Miami, New York
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