Patents in nanotechnology: an analysis using macro-indicators and forecasting curves

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated future trends of worldwide patenting in nanotechnology and its domains using logistic growth curves while the patent activity from the main countries, technological domains and subdomains were assessed in four different contexts: worldwide, patents filed in the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and patents applications in the triadic (TRIAD) and in the tetradic (TETRAD) countries. The indicators were developed based on a set of records recovered from the Derwent Innovation Index database. Nanotechnology has recently emerged as a new research field, with logistic trend behaviors generating interesting discussions since they suggest that technological development in nanotechnology and its domains has reached an initial maturation stage. Future scenarios were compiled due to the difficult to establish upper limits to forecasting curves. Although China's share of patents is small in some cases, it was the only country to constantly increase the number of patents from a worldwide perspective. In contrast, the USA and the EU were the most active in the USPTO, TRIAD and TETRAD cases, followed by Japan and Korea. The technological subdomains of main interest from countries/region changed according to the perspective adopted, even though there was a clear bias towards semiconductors, surface treatments, electrical components, macromolecular chemistry, materials---metallurgy, pharmacy---cosmetics and analysis---measurement---control subdomains. We conclude that monitoring nanotechnology advances should be constantly reviewed in order to confirm the evidence observed and forecasted.