Patent analysis for technology forecasting: Sector-specific applications

Abstract

Although patent analysis is a powerful technique to forecast the future of technology, it is not obvious whether the analysis is applicable to technology forecasting over all industries. Since the strategies of firms to protect their innovation vary among patents and trade secrets according to the characteristics of industries, patent analysis might be inappropriate to some industries. Therefore, this paper aims at improving the usefulness of patent analysis in TF by identifying relevant industries which the patent-based TF can be used in. To this end, first, sectoral differences in patenting activities will be investigated, presenting implications from patent activities, innovation patterns and patent statistics. Second, the applicability of patent trend analysis for technology forecasting will be explored in each industry by applying S-curve fitting with patent data. Finally, the method to improve the performance of patent-based TF will be suggested. The comparison of patent application status will make technology forecasting accurate, considering a time lag between R&D investment and patent application of the technology. This process will provide a good vehicle for precise TF by clarifying the application of patent analysis.