Patent Activity as an Indicator Determining the Vector of Development of the World Economy

Abstract

Analysis of the change in the number of annually filed patent applications is a new method for studying the patterns of economic development. The article considers two trends. Firstly, the growth of patent applications is decreasing in the whole world with the exception of China since the 1980s excluding the short – term interval of 1997–2002, after 2002 does not exceed 1.5% per year. In China, the annual 20% increase in the number of patent applications over 25 years led to an increase in its share in the patent applications of the world by more than 40%. At the same time, the distribution of patent applications in various areas in China almost completely correlates with the global vector of scientific and technological development. Secondly: there was a change in the nature of the movement in the direction of diversification of the global scientific and technological development, as indicated by the dynamics of the Herfindahl – Hirschman index. At least from 1980 to the end of the 20th century, the monopolization index had been decreasing. The change occurred in 1997–2002, and since 2002 the monopolization index has been growing. There is an increase in the share of patent applications in the areas of Computer technology, Digital communication, Electrical equipment apparatus, Energy, Measurement. At the same time, the share of both wellformed areas, the share of which is above 2–3% (these are Telecommunications, Textile and paper machines, Audiovisual technology, Machine tools, Organic fine chemistry, Chemical engineering), and those at the initial stage (basic communication, Micro-structural and nano-technology) are decreasing. The analysis of the dynamics Revealed Technological Advantage performed. For the leading economies of the world, directions of technological development have been revealed, along which the most successful development takes place. It is shown that the directions in which the share of patent applications in Russia is ahead of its average world level, namely Food chemistry, Micro-structural and nanotechnology, Analysis of biological materials, have had a negative dynamics in the world over the past five years. Therefore, the adjustment of the domestic vector of scientific and technological development and the transfer of efforts to the development of computer technology, medical technology, civil engineering, computer technology is required.