Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1-22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0-6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3-32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32-1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37-1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59-0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.
Highlights
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV, family Paramyxoviridae, genus Morbillivirus) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in sheep, goat and other small ruminant populations
The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that PPRV threatens nearly 80% of the global small ruminant population and impacts the livelihood of over 330 million farmers who rely on small ruminant husbandry [4]
We address the following research aims: (i) to describe the current distribution of PPRV seroprevalence and the force of infection in northern Tanzania, (ii) to identify risk factors associated with PPRV seroprevalence and (iii) to determine if PPRV risk is correlated among sheep, goats and cattle
Summary
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV, family Paramyxoviridae, genus Morbillivirus) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in sheep, goat and other small ruminant populations. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that PPRV threatens nearly 80% of the global small ruminant population and impacts the livelihood of over 330 million farmers who rely on small ruminant husbandry [4]. FAO estimates that PPRV causes approximately $1.45–2.1 billion USD in global annual losses, with half of these losses impacting Africa and a quarter affecting Asia [4]. These economic losses are due to livestock mortality, impaired production and treatment and vaccination of morbid animals. Cost-benefit analyses estimate the net benefit of PPRV eradication at $74.2 billion USD and a benefit-cost ratio of 33.8, based on a 15-year program [5]
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