Abstract
River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers’ performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue.
Highlights
Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has the largest continuous grazing land in the world [1,2,3]
Adaptation strategies can be distinguished in short, medium, and long-term regarding to time span and effect of decreasing water inflow on farmer’s pasture
As the effects of decrease water inflow on pasture are strongly dependent on the farm position within the delta, the differentiation should be understood as a guide but not as an absolute term
Summary
Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has the largest continuous grazing land in the world [1,2,3]. River deltas like the Ili, Amu Darya, and Syr Darya likewise shape the landscape [4] and provide the most productive pastures in the vast drylands. The productivity of delta pastures depends on river water inflow and is highly vulnerable to inflow changes [5]. Kazakhstan covers 2724.9 thousand square kilometers and is the world’s ninth largest country. It borders Russia to the north, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to the south, the Caspian Sea and Volga River to the west, and China as well as Tian Shan Mountains to the east [6]. Kazakhstan has a population of Agriculture 2020, 10, 281; doi:10.3390/agriculture10070281 www.mdpi.com/journal/agriculture
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