Past, Present, and Future Vulnerability to Dengue in Jamaica: A Spatial Analysis of Monthly Variations.

Sheika Henry,Francisco De Assis Mendonça

doi:10.3390/ijerph17093156

Abstract

Over the years, Jamaica has experienced sporadic cases of dengue fever. Even though the island is vulnerable to dengue, there is paucity in the spatio-temporal analysis of the disease using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing tools. Further, access to time series dengue data at the community level is a major challenge on the island. This study therefore applies the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI) framework to analyze vulnerability to dengue in Jamaica based on past, current and future climate change conditions using three scenarios: (1) WorldClim rainfall and temperature dataset from 1970 to 2000; (2) Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) rainfall and land surface temperature (LST) as proxy for air temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period 2002 to 2016, and (3) maximum temperature and rainfall under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario for 2030. downscaled at 25 km based on the Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.3.5. Although vulnerability to dengue varies spatially and temporally, a higher vulnerability was depicted in urban areas in comparison to rural areas. The results also demonstrate the possibility for expansion in the geographical range of dengue in higher altitudes under climate change conditions based on scenario 3. This study provides an insight into the use of data with different temporal and spatial resolution in the analysis of dengue vulnerability.

Highlights

IntroductionDengue fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted by the bite of an infected mosquito
Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted by the bite of an infected mosquito.The principal vector responsible for the transmission of the disease is the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which is mostly found in urban areas
The results showed high to very high vulnerability for urban areas and places where people reside in all the scenarios presented

Summary

Introduction

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted by the bite of an infected mosquito. The principal vector responsible for the transmission of the disease is the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which is mostly found in urban areas. The Aedes albopictus, found in rural areas, is a dengue vector [1]. The virus is comprised of four different serotypes (DENV 1, DENV 2, DENV 3, and DENV 4). Infection from a particular serotype results in immunity to that serotype [2]. Symptoms of dengue include fever and at least two of the following: headache, joint pain, muscle or bone pain, rash, nose bleeding, or pain behind the eyes. Dengue can manifest in dengue haemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome [3]

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