Past, present and future suitable areas for the relict tree Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Juglandaceae): Integrating fossil records, niche modeling, and phylogeography for conservation

Abstract

Pterocarya fraxinifolia, native to the southern Caucasus and adjacent areas, has been widely introduced in Europe. In this study, we investigate the following: (1) How did its current distribution form? (2) What are the past, current, and future suitable habitats of P. fraxinifolia? (3) What is the best conservation approach? Ecological niche modeling was applied to determine its climatic demands and project the distribution of climatically suitable areas during three periods of past, current, and future (2070) time. Then, an integrated analysis of fossil data was performed. Massive expansion of Pterocarya species between the Miocene and Pliocene facilitated the arrival of P. fraxinifolia to the southern Caucasus. The Last Glacial Maximum played a vital role in its current fragmented spatial distribution in the Euxinian and Hyrcanian regions with lower elevations, and Caucasian and Irano-Turanian regions with higher elevations. Climatic limiting factors were very different across these four regions. Future climate change will create conditions for the expansion of this species in Europe. Human activities significantly decreased the suitable area for P. fraxinifolia, especially in the Euxinian, Hyrcanian, and Irano-Turanian regions. Considering genetic diversity, climate vulnerability, and land utilization, the Euxinian, Hyrcanian, and Irano-Turanian regions have been recognized as conservation priority areas for P. fraxinifolia.