Past, present and future land-use in Xishuangbanna, China and the implications for carbon dynamics

Abstract

Land use/land cover change is an important driver of global change and changes in carbon stocks. Estimating the changes in carbon stocks due to tropical deforestation has been difficult, mainly because of uncertainties in estimating deforestation rates and the biomass in the forest that have been cut. In this study, we combined detailed land-use change over a 27-year period based on satellite images and forest inventory data to estimate changes in biomass carbon stocks in the Xishuangbanna prefecture (1.9 million ha) of China. Xishuangbanna is located in southwestern China in the upper watershed of the Mekong River, and the major forest types are tropical seasonal rain forest, mountain rain forest, and subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest. In the past when the region was completely forested the total biomass carbon would have been approximately 212.65 ± 8.75 Tg C. By 1976 forest cover had been reduced to 70%, and in addition many forests had been degraded resulting in a large decrease in the total biomass carbon stocks (86.97 ± 3.70 Tg C). From 1976 to 2003, the mean deforestation rate was 13 722 ha year −1 (1.12%), and this resulted in the loss of 370,494 ha of forest, and by 2003 total biomass carbon stocks had been reduced to 80.85 ± 2.64 Tg C. The annual carbon emissions due to land-use change, mainly forest conversion to agriculture and rubber plantations, were 0.37 ± 0.03 Tg C year −1 between 1976 and 1988 and 0.13 ± 0.04 Tg C year −1 between 1988 and 2003. During the next 20 years, if rubber plantations expand into forests outside of reserves, shrublands, grasslands, and shifting cultivation below 1500 m the total biomass carbon stocks of Xishuangbanna will decrease to 76.45 ± 1.49 Tg C in 2023. This would reflect a loss of 4.13 ± 1.14 Tg C between 2003 and 2023, or an annual loss of 0.21 ± 0.06 Tg C year −1. Alternatively, if rubber plantations only expand into areas of shifting cultivation below 1500 m, and all areas presently in shrublands and grasslands are allowed to recover into secondary forests, total biomass carbon stock of the region would increase to 92.65 ± 3.80 Tg C in 2023. Under this scenario, the growth of existing forests and the expansion of new forests would result in a net sequestration of 0.60 ± 0.06 Tg C year −1. This study demonstrates that the uncertainty of biomass estimates can be greatly reduced if detailed land-use analyses are combined with forest inventory data, and that slight changes in future land-use practices can have large implications for carbon fluxes.