Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

Pelayo Acevedo,José Melo-Ferreira,Paulo Célio Alves,Raimundo Real,Diego Fontaneto

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0051529

Abstract

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species’ ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model’s output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

Highlights

Studying the distribution of a species and estimating its ecogeographical predictors are very important issues in ecology, macroecology and biogeography
Our explanatory model shows that the Iberian hare distribution is mainly modulated by the topoclimatic factor when its pure effect is considered and when topoclimate is combined with land cover
This study provides an example of how gaps in species macroecological knowledge can be filled using species distribution models (SDMs)

Summary

Introduction

Studying the distribution of a species and estimating its ecogeographical predictors are very important issues in ecology, macroecology and biogeography. Like other techniques in ecology and biogeography, SDMs require a theoretical framework that establishes relationships among different traits involved in the model (extent of the study area, data on species distribution, predictors, algorithms, among others) and the interpretation of the results [17]. In this respect, a relevant conceptual framework developed by Soberon and Peterson [18], and reviewed in later studies [3], can be used to obtain different types of models as a function of the part of the ecogeographical world of the modelled species. These inferences are relevant for applied ecology and conservation biology, and are useful for the study of poorly known species

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Discussion

Conclusion