Past, present and future climate connectivity informs conservation strategies in the Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration, China

Abstract

Given ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbance, conservation strategies that connect habitats and protect biodiversity are urgently needed. Climate connectivity among remaining natural habitat patches (NHPs) may facilitate animal and plant species migration forced by climate change. In developing more effective conservation strategies, it is therefore important to analyse the spatiotemporal changes in climate connectivity driven by climate change and the human footprint, and to consider how these may change in the future. In this study, we mapped the human footprint of the Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) for the years 1980, 2015, and 2050, quantified the potential ability to achieve climate connectivity of each NHP, and determined whether each NHP could achieve climate connectivity over time in the face of ongoing warming and increased disturbance. Results suggest that, despite climate warming and an increased overall human footprint in the YRDUA from 1980 to 2050, the potential to achieve climate connectivity is challenging but possible. NHPs with “connection failure” and “connection interruption” are projected to increase, and the loss of climate connectivity will therefore become progressively severe. It is concluded that the effect of corridors on climate connectivity becomes more pronounced. Climate connectivity can be achieved if the least cost paths (LCPs) are strategically included as corridors in the ecological network. Under this scenario, the NHPs with “connection failure” are reduced by 82% relative to the scenario in which all LCPs are omitted in the ecological network. We proposed a strategy for sustainable biodiversity protection based on a multiscale nested ecological network that enhances landscape connectivity and stability, and an ecological compensation system that balances economic growth and ecological conservation. The proposed strategy is suitable to application elsewhere to guide the design of more appropriate corridor structures that promote biodiversity conservation.