Past, current, and future trends in the prevalence of primary sclerosing cholangitis and inflammatory bowel disease across England (2015–2027): a nationwide, population-based study

Abstract

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation in Europe, and a major risk factor for cancer in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, it is not known how the epidemiology of PSC will change as that of IBD evolves. The aim of this study is to provide nationwide statistics on the past and current prevalence of PSC and IBD across England, and forecast how this is likely to change over time. We accessed and analysed a nationwide population-based administrative healthcare registry, which houses prospectively accrued data since April 1st 2001. In so doing, the past and current prevalence of PSC-IBD and IBD alone was determined among 18-60-year-olds in England, alongside average annual percentage change rates (AAPC), between the 1st of January 2015 and 2020. Past and current prevalence data, alongside trends in incidence and event-free survival rates, were then used to forecast future prevalence between 2021 and2027. In 2015, the prevalence of PSC with prior IBD diagnosis was 5.0 per 100,000 population, rising to 5.7 when including those with IBD diagnosed after PSC. In 2020, prevalence increased to 7.6 (8.6 accounting for IBD developing after PSC), yielding an AAPC of 8.8. In 2027, PSC-IBD prevalence is forecast to be 11.7 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 10.8-12.7), and 13.3 when accounting for IBD developing after PSC (AAPC: 6.4; 95% PI: 5.3-7.5). Comparatively, the prevalence of IBD alone rose among 18-60-year-olds from 384.3 in 2015 to 538.7 in 2020 (AAPC 7.0), and forecast to increase to 742.5 by 2027 (95% PI: 736.4-748.0; AAPC: 4.7, 95% PI: 4.6-4.8). The rate of growth in PSC-IBD is predicted to exceed IBD-alone. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including aetiological drivers of developing (invariably progressive) liver disease in IBD, and the implications of rising case burden on health care resources. This study was supported by an unrestricted grant provided by Gilead Sciences.