Abstract
BackgroundAustralia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.Methodology/Principal findingsWe estimated the historical (1995–2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.Conclusions/SignificanceBy estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.
Highlights
Chikungunya is an often-debilitating disease caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus of the Togaviridae family
The virus is a threat to public health in regions where the primary vectors are established, as evidenced by past epidemics in the Indian Ocean Islands, South America and the Caribbean
In Australia, there are established populations of Ae. aegypti both on the mainland and in the Torres Strait, and of Ae. albopictus in the Torres Strait. This provides a theoretical potential for CHIKV transmission, as seen historically with dengue virus (DENV)
Summary
Chikungunya is an often-debilitating disease caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus of the Togaviridae family. Epidemic CHIKV activity is linked to urban cycles of mosquitohuman transmission, often in locations previously naïve to the virus Both mosquito species are present in some regions of Australia and are capable of expanding their geographical distributions, providing the opportunity for CHIKV outbreaks into novel Australian regions [7]. Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector
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