Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism

Abstract

The paper summarizes changes of the climate conditions in Austria impacting tourism as part of an extended literature review. The holistic approach of the study enabled to establish the physical links between emissions created by touristic activities and resultant climate responses. Since the end of the 19 th century, air temperature in Austria increased in all elevations by 1.8 °C (+20% compared to the global land areas). Depending on the scenario, a further increase of less than 2 °C (“Paris target”) to 4 °C (“worst-case scenario”; RCP 8.5) is expected until the year 2100, which means that the number of hot days either will stabilize at the current level (“Paris Target”) or current extreme years will become the new normal at the end of the century (“worst-case scenario”). Regarding snow, as the basic requirement for winter tourism, the natural snow cover duration and snow depth decreased especially in western and southern Austria. Depending on the elevation, a further decline of 10% to 40% (“Paris target”) and 50% to 90% (“worst-case scenario”), respectively, is projected until the year 2100. Sustained warming also reduces the time slots for technical snow production in all elevations. More frequent severe thunderstorms and related small-scale phenomena such as heavy precipitation, hail, squalls, small-scale floods and mudflow avalanches are to be expected to increase, especially in the worst-case scenario. Climate change effects emerge progressively in observation-based tourism-climate indicators and more sustained impacts are projected for the future. The magnitude of climate risks in the second half of the 21 st century can be substantially reduced by rapid, global climate mitigation and adaptation measures. Climatological boundary conditions in Austria have already changed and more profound, human induced changes are expected in future, further increasing impacts relevant for tourism in all seasons of the year. The following implications for tourism management can be deduced from this study: • Sector-specific, immediate and effective climate mitigation and adaptation measures are required to substantially reduce the magnitude of the major tourism relevant climate risks (recession of snow, ice and permafrost; heat stress; thunderstorms and related local extreme events; drought events) in the second half of the 21 st century. • Site- and sector-specific, tailored studies based on downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model output should be performed to help analyze current and future business-related climate risks together with national climate service providers. • Systematic, coordinated and sector-specific awareness raising for climate change and its causes and impacts is needed to ensure acceptance and increase effectivity of mitigation and adaptation measures both for people working in tourism and the guests. • Targeted operational meteorological early warning systems need to be designed and locally implemented (heat stress; thunderstorms and related local extreme events).