Past and Future Changes of Land Use/Land Cover and the Potential Impact on Ecosystem Services Value of Damietta Governorate, Egypt

Abstract

This investigation aims to assess the changes of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and its impact on ecosystem services value in Damietta Governorate, Egypt. To fulfill this aim, Landsat data of TM5 in 2001, ETM in 2011 and OLI in 2021 were used. The Maximum Likelihood Classifier was employed to track the changes in LULC of the study area. Cellular automata (CA) and Markov model adopted from IDRISI software were used for accurate prediction of the LULC in 2031. The VALIDATE model in TerrSet was used to compare the predicted 2031 LULC with actual 2021 LULC to assess the accuracy of the model. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was utilized to assess the value per unit area of land types. The results indicated that there was a noticeable change in different land cover classes during the duration 2001–2021. Results showed that there are decreases in the cultivated area and the bare area, meanwhile the urban area was increased. The cultivated area was remarkably decreased recording 548.2 km2 (62.15%) at 2001, 548.2 km2 (55.79%) at 2011 and 468.96 km2 (53.16%) at 2021 of the total study area. However, the percentage of urban area increased; reporting 65.69 km2 (7.45%), 124.57 km2 (14.12%), and 176.67 km2 (20.03%) at 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively. LULC analyses in 2031 showed an increase in the urban area by 2.8% and a decrease in the cultivated area by 7.2%. The kappa index values are greater than 0.80, which shows a strong agreement between simulated and predicted LULC maps. The comprehensive index of Damietta Governorate ranges from 100 to 400. The ES that experienced positive ESV changes during the study period gives strength indicator for achieving the sustainable development of Damietta Governorate. To prevent further ecosystem degradation and to ensure the best possible delivery of ES, it is necessary to reduce the current drivers of LULC changes within the buildup in agricultural land. The study helps the local authorities to better understand the land use system and to develop an improved land use management strategies that manage the urban expansion and guarantee the ecological conservation.