Passenger Flow Forecast in Tourism Traffic Based on the Expanded Four-Stage Method

Abstract

To explore the effect of a transportation hub on tourism traffic, an expanded four-stage method was applied from traffic demand to forecast passenger flow. The Increase Law was used to forecast the induced traffic. Traffic distribution was modeled separately within and between scenic spots on the basis of trip purpose in order to obtain the traffic flow distribution of peak periods on weekdays and holidays. According to the diversity of the means of transportation, the traffic volume was distributed on road networks nearby. This forecast method can provide academic support for decision-makers of both scenic spots and road planning, and enhance the competitiveness, as well as the service level, of the road network.