Passenger Capacity and Safety: Investigating the Likelihood of COVID-19 Transmission in Public Transport Modes within Makurdi Metropolis

Abstract

Following its outbreak in the Wuhan region of China, the spread of Corona Virus (COVID-19) across the world has threatened national and local authorities or policy makers and transport experts due to its effects on human mobility. This study investigated the transmissibility of COVID-19 among passengers in transit using public transport modes in Makurdi metropolis. Analytical simulation using stochastic search method called Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique was used to simulate the transmissibility of the infectious disease within enclosed spaces of transport modes based on layouts and capacities. The sum of arithmetic sequence was used as the objective function of individual arrivals in each mode, it was minimised to obtain optimum safe capacity. Capacities of public transport modes were subdivided into; Normal, Above Normal and Below Normal (50% of Normal). Findings of the experiments indicated that optimum safe capacity of minibuses, taxies, tricycles and motorcycles used in Makurdi metropolis were at 8, 3, 2 and 1 person respectively. This occurred at 50% capacity which agreed with findings of previous studies. An efficient and sustainable public transport policy framework was designed for policy makers and transport experts to help achieve safe travel and healthier living in Makurdi metropolis during the COVID-19 era. Keywords— COVID-19 transmission, Makurdi Metropolis, Modal Split, Mode capacity, Passenger Safety, Public Transport.