Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders*

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveSome primary voters cast their ballot for a candidate they do not most prefer in hopes that doing so will increase their party's chances of winning the general election. However, the emergence of party “outsider” candidates challenges prevailing assumptions about the persuasive pull of electability arguments on voter decision making. In this project, we analyze whether and when supporters of “outsider” candidates resolve strategic dilemmas relative to supporters of “insider” candidates.MethodsWe administer survey experiments to Republicans and Democrats immediately before the 2016 and 2020 primaries, respectively.ResultsAlthough voters in both parties are willing to vote strategically, there are critical differences when it comes to the loyalty primary voters feel to outsider primary candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.ConclusionStrategic voting decisions are not based merely on electability, particularly in the case of “outsider” candidates. Scholars should integrate additional factors into future work on voter behavior in primaries.