Party Identification

Abstract

Party identification has long been thought to be the unmoved mover of political evaluations. The research presented here shows that party identification is changeable. In fact, over a 2-year period (1990-1992), we can see that there is a substantively important amount of movement. MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson argue that expectations, not retrospections, lie at the core of political economy. This work takes that logic and shows that the individual-level changes in party identification are explained by both prospective and retrospective economic evaluations. A novel finding in this article is that egocentric economic evaluations are more important than sociotropic evaluations. People are looking at what the government has done to them rather than at what the government has done to the national economy when making political decisions.