Party Change and the Shifting Dynamics in Presidential Nominations: The Lessons of 2008

Abstract

Presidential nominations in recent years have been settled with increasing speed, most of the time in the early stages of the primaries and caucuses, and certainly before the national convention, which has become more of a rally. Even when the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination continued to the end of the primary season in 2008, it was settled before the convention. Analysts have emphasized the importance of the “invisible primary” and the front-loaded delegate selection schedule in explaining the early resolution of Presidential nomination contests. However, not enough attention has been paid to a much more fundamental change in our political parties and party system: The old umbrella parties have been replaced by ideological polarization between the parties and ideological homogenization within the parties. Our new party system dates back about forty years, and features increased ideological unity and decreased factionalism, making it easier to settle nominations. Even today's front-loaded nominating calendar would not have prevented some of the hotly contested conventions of the old umbrella parties.