Party affiliation and the legacy of HOLC redlining maps

Abstract

The Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps were formalized in the 1930s to assess lending risks in certain neighborhoods based on their racial or ethnic composition and systematically denied services such as mortgage loans and insurance. Despite the abolishment in the 1960s, many consequences of redlining persist in many American cities today. In this paper, we combine historical HOLC redlining maps and modern-day voter registration data to examine the relationships between redlining and party affiliation in Miami-Dade County, Florida. We use probit regressions to estimate the likelihood of residents’ affiliation with different parties in relation to redlining, controlling for resident characteristics and census block group factors. We find that, after accounting for socio-demographics, residents in historically redlined neighborhoods are more likely to be Democratic voters and less likely to be Republican voters. Additionally, we show that certain resident characteristics contribute to their party affiliation. Specifically, female residents are more likely to be Democratic voters but less likely to be Republican voters. There is also a clear pattern in racial disparities regarding party affiliation. Black residents are more likely to be Democratic voters but less likely to be Republican voters when compared to White residents. Our results highlight future urban planning efforts to prioritize the integration of redlined and non-redlined neighborhoods to avoid political polarization and isolation induced by historical urban policies such as redlining.