Partisan Differences in Physical Distancing Predict Infections and Mortality During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Abstract

Few things bind disparate groups together like a common obstacle. Yet, numerous polls suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has been subject to a deep partisan divide. Using geo-tracking data of over 17 million smartphone users around the United States, we examined whether partisan differences predict objective physical-distancing behaviors. U.S. counties that voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 exhibited 16% less physical distancing from March 9 to May 8, 2020, as assessed by overall movement and visits to nonessential services (e.g., restaurants). Counties that watched more conservative media (i.e., Fox News) also exhibited reduced physical distancing, as did states with higher Trump approval. Contrary to our preregistered predictions, these differences did not weaken with time and remained even in pro-Trump states with active stay-at-home orders. Finally, lower physical distancing in strongly pro-Trump counties (those whose pro-Trump margin was 2 SDs above the mean) was associated with a 27% higher growth rate in COVID-19 infections. Taken together, these data suggest that behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic is not immune to the partisan divide in the United States and that partisan differences in physical distancing predict subsequent coronavirus infections and fatalities.