Particle precipitation prior to large earthquakes of both the Sumatra and Philippine Regions: A statistical analysis

Abstract

A study of statistical correlation between low L-shell electrons precipitating into the atmosphere and strong earthquakes is presented. More than 11years of the Medium Energy Protons Electrons Detector data from the NOAA-15 Sun-synchronous polar orbiting satellite were analysed. Electron fluxes were analysed using a set of adiabatic coordinates. From this, significant electron counting rate fluctuations were evidenced during geomagnetic quiet periods. Electron counting rates were compared to earthquakes by defining a seismic event L-shell obtained radially projecting the epicentre geographical positions to a given altitude towards the zenith. Counting rates were grouped in every satellite semi-orbit together with strong seismic events and these were chosen with the L-shell coordinates close to each other. NOAA-15 electron data from July 1998 to December 2011 were compared for nearly 1800 earthquakes with magnitudes larger than or equal to 6, occurring worldwide. When considering 30–100keV precipitating electrons detected by the vertical NOAA-15 telescope and earthquake epicentre projections at altitudes greater that 1300km, a significant correlation appeared where a 2–3h electron precipitation was detected prior to large events in the Sumatra and Philippine Regions. This was in physical agreement with different correlation times obtained from past studies that considered particles with greater energies. The Discussion below of satellite orbits and detectors is useful for future satellite missions for earthquake mitigation.