Abstract
AbstractAimsClimate change is expected to markedly change site factors, tree species composition and finally ecosystem services provided by forests. Here, we describe the development of a framework for modelling how these changes may transform forest site types. Site types capture information on site conditions like climate, topography and soil, all factors with strong influence on tree species occurrence.LocationSwitzerland.MethodsWe elicited expert knowledge and followed a participatory modelling approach for quantifying upward shifts of altitudinal vegetation belts and the changes in the zonal distribution of main tree species, as a basis for assessing transformation pathways of forest site types for three climate projections.ResultsThe model results show marked range shifts of altitudinal vegetation belts. The change in the vegetation belt and a rule base for forest site type transformations allow for assessing the location‐specific and long‐term transformation pathway from the current to a future forest site type.ConclusionsThe resulting maps enable forest managers to take climate change into account when selecting tree species. The presented method complements statistical distribution models as it considers more site information, integrates expert knowledge and is based on a forest site type classification which is already widely used by forest practitioners.
Highlights
Climate change is increasingly leading to climatic mismatches between the requirements of the tree species which are currently present and their environment (Bertrand et al, 2011)
We describe the overall structure of the participatory modelling approach, the Swiss classification scheme of site types (ST), the details of the models for analyzing the impacts of climate changes on the altitudinal vegetation belt (AVB) and forest STs, and the data
The upper boundaries of the AVBs are influenced by several factors which represent their “climate character,” given topographical and geomorphologic conditions
Summary
Climate change is increasingly leading to climatic mismatches between the requirements of the tree species which are currently present and their environment (Bertrand et al, 2011). Forest site types (ST) have been described to capture site variability due to factors like substrate, aspect and slope As this ST classification generates reliable species recommendations and is relatively easy to use and well accepted among forest managers, initiatives to quantify the need for climate change adaptation in Swiss forestry and to communicate with forest managers should ideally rely on it. To involve the main decision makers from the beginning in the development process and to include region-specific knowledge, we developed an expert system for enabling participatory modelling of the range shifts in the AVBs for assessing climate change impacts on STs
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