Participatory modelling for poverty alleviation using fuzzy cognitive maps and OWA learning aggregation.

Konstantinos Papageorgiou,Harpalsinh Chudasama,Pramod K Singh,Dionysios Bochtis,Elpiniki I Papageorgiou,George Stamoulis,Baogui Xin

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0233984

Abstract

Participatory modelling is an emerging approach in the decision-making process through which stakeholders contribute to the representation of the perceived causal linkages of a complex system. The use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) for participatory modelling helps policy-makers develop dynamic quantitative models for strategising development interventions. The aggregation of knowledge from multiple stakeholders provides consolidated and more reliable results. Average aggregation is the most common aggregation method used in FCMs-based modelling for weighted interconnections between concepts. This paper proposes a new aggregation method using learning OWA (ordered weighted averaging) operators for aggregating FCM weights assigned by various stakeholders. Besides, we report a comparative analysis of 'OWA learning aggregation' with the conventional average aggregation method, while evaluating the theory of change for the world's most extensive poverty alleviation programme in India. The results of the FCMWizard web-based tool show that the proposed method provides an opportunity to policy-makers for evaluating outcomes of proposed policies while addressing social resilience and economic mobility.

Highlights

Poverty is not merely a low income but multidimensional phenomenon involving lack of income or consumption, food insecurity, high vulnerability to risks, low human capital, unequal social relations, and powerlessness [1]
Filtering key concepts from the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) system is a traditional approach in scenario planning that helps link narratives to the quantitative model while focussing on the critical concepts with strong direct or indirect effects on the scenario objectives, which can significantly change the balance of the entire system [40]
In the FCMbased scenario analysis, the identification of key concepts mainly relies on the perception of the experts

Summary

Introduction

Poverty is not merely a low income but multidimensional phenomenon involving lack of income or consumption, food insecurity, high vulnerability to risks, low human capital, unequal social relations, and powerlessness [1]. Poverty eradication involves complex interactions within socio-economic systems. Understanding such complex interactions requires a participatory modelling approach that can be implemented by fuzzy cognitive maps. Stakeholders allow decision-makers to understand meaningful interactions occurring inside a complex system and contribute valuable first-hand knowledge for supporting decision-making, policy formulation, regulation, and management purposes.

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Discussion

Conclusion