Abstract
Floods are common phenomenon in the state of Kuala Krai, specifically in Kelantan-Malaysia. Every year , floods affecting biodiversity on this region and al so causing property loss of this residential area. The residents in Kelantan always suffered from floods s ince the water overflows to the areas adjoining to the rivers, lakes or dams. Months, average monthly rain fall, temperature, relative humidity and surface wi nd were used as predictors while the water level of Ga las River was used as response. The selection of su itable predictor variables becomes an important issue for developing prediction model since the analysis data uses many variables from meteorological and hydrogical departments. In this study, we conduct K-fold CrossValidation (CV) to select the important variables f or the water level predictions. A suitable predicti on model is needed to forecast the water level in Gala s River by adopting the Ordinary Linear Regression (OLR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR). However, we need to perform pre-processing data of the datasets since the original data contain missin g data. We perform two types of pre-processing data which are using mean of the corresponding months (t ype I pre-processing data) and OLR (type II preprocessing data) of missing data. Based on the experiment, PLSR is more suitable model rather than OLR for predicting the water level in Galas River and t he use of the type I pre-processing data gives high er accuracy than the type II pre-processing data.
Highlights
Floods are common phenomenon which can be defined as the presence of excess of water in the place that is normally dry
In order to facilitate the prediction of flooding in the river and the warning beforehand, this study aims to build a model on the relation between the selected predictors and the water level of Galas River by adopting the Ordinary Linear Regression (OLR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)
We focused on one main tributary of Kelantan River which is Galas River in Kuala Krai, Kelantan
Summary
Floods are common phenomenon which can be defined as the presence of excess of water in the place that is normally dry. Floods are often cited as being the most lethal of all natural disasters (Noji, 1997; Alexander, 1993; Jonkman and Kelman, 2005). The flooding of Malaysian rivers is mainly due to the high amount of rainfall in river basins because of the climate is greatly influenced by the monsoon winds. The worst flood in Malaysia was recorded in 1926 which has been described as having caused the most extensive damage to the natural environment. Subsequent major floods were recorded in 1931, 1947, 1954, 1957, 1967 and 1971. Most countries in Malaysia suffer from floods during monsoon season especially in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Johor. Kelantan is a state in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia that has never missed a flooding event, which occurs every year during the northeast monsoon period
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