Parsing the 100% calculated panel reactive antibody kidney transplant candidates: Who gets transplanted?

Abstract

The new kidney allocation system in the United States has improved deceased donor transplant rates among candidates with high calculated panel reactive antibodies (CPRAs). Probability analysis predicts a very low transplant rate as the CPRA approaches 100%. This study sought to determine if the rate of deceased donor kidney transplant based on the actual CPRA in the cohort of 100% qualifying candidates behaved as predicted by probability analysis. Nine thousand two hundred and twenty eight patients were identified on the waiting list on or after December 2014 that had at least one CPRA greater than or equal to 99.5%. The distribution of the 100% CPRA group was highly skewed toward 100% (Median CPRA 99.98%). The decile group within the 100% CPRA qualifying population was by far the most important factor determining kidney transplantation. The highest two deciles of CPRA had a very low rate of transplantation. Options to improve the prospects of deceased donor transplant include intelligently lowering the CPRA by reducing unacceptable antigens, expanding the donor pool by listing candidates for higher risk donors, or through desensitization. The CPRA calculator should display the non-integer CPRA out to several decimal points so that informed decisions can be made for these candidates regarding their prospects of receiving a deceased donor offer.