PAROLE OUTCOME AS A FUNCTION OF TIME SERVED

Abstract

For several decades there has been a concern about prediction of parole adjustment, selection for parole and determination of the most appropriate length of incarceration for inmates. In their recent review of prediction efforts, Dean and Duggan (1968) noted the pioneering efforts of Warner ( 1923) and traced the develop ment of the techniques through Burgess and Ohlin (1951) to the more recent work of Mannheim and Wilkins (1955) and Wilkins (I905) The central issues are unchanged from the time of Ohlin's publication of Selection for Parole: A Manual of Parole Prediction (1951), wherein Ernest W. Burgess and Thorsten Sellin introduced the topic with the statement, If parole is to be most effective, a prisoner should be placed on parole at the moment when . . . both he and the community could profit most by such a step (p. 10). To highlight the difficulty of determining this most propitious moment, he presented the dilemma facing parole authorities: There is no way to estimate the full cost to society and to the parole system which may result from a serious parole violation. . . . Failure to grant parole to a meritorious case is likely to result in destroying the inmate's initiative and desire for rehabilitation, a cost that cannot be measured (p. 33). The present study is a further effort to provide understanding of the association between length of incarceration and parole outcome and some of the data elements that are involved in this