Parched and impatient: Political engagement after drought

Abstract

How does local experience of climate change alter voters' policy preferences and voting decisions? After exposure to a climate disaster, voters may elect politicians prioritising robust disaster prevention policies, or conversely, immediate economic relief. In turn, elected representatives will either mitigate or exacerbate the severity of future climate events. In this study, I leverage a climate event with a high degree of local geographic variation – a pre-election drought in Australia – to see how it shaped political beliefs and behaviours in 2019. Using a longitudinal panel survey, I show that voters in drought-exposed areas increasingly prioritised individual economic security, rather than broader climate-mitigation policies. Moreover, I find that regional micro-parties in drought-affected regions gained vote share. In other words, voters at the front-lines of climate change sought out immediate and local economic relief. Unless local politicians can propose climate policies with short-term economic benefits, disasters may limit governments' capacities to pursue long-term climate resilience.