Abstract

BackgroundInfection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally.Methodology/Principal FindingsHere, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling.Conclusions/SignificanceThese findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

Highlights

  • IntroductionCharacteristics of the parasite, the primary infected host, and the susceptible population might affect whether an epidemic occurs

  • What drives the probability of epidemics? Characteristics of the parasite, the primary infected host, and the susceptible population might affect whether an epidemic occurs

  • Transmission to a single fish always resulted in an epidemic in the tank, and epidemics occurred with approximately the same probability irrespective of host density

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Summary

Introduction

Characteristics of the parasite, the primary infected host, and the susceptible population might affect whether an epidemic occurs. With density-dependent transmission, the rate of contact is assumed to increase directly with the density of the population [e.g. 2]. When the rate of contact is constant irrespective of population density, transmission is dependent on the relative frequency of susceptible hosts in the population [e.g. 3]. Shoaling fish might have a contact rate that is not greatly affected by the density of the population In such cases, parasite transmission should be governed by frequency-dependent, rather than by density-dependent factors. In frequency-dependent transmission models, infected hosts contact other individuals even when density is low, allowing a parasite to invade a low-density host population [5]. The relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally

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