Parameter shifts for nonautonomous systems in low dimension: bifurcation- and rate-induced tipping

Abstract

We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for non-autonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth ‘parameter shift’ from one asymptotic value to another. We express tipping in terms of properties of local pullback attractors and present some results on how nontrivial dynamics for non-autonomous systems can be deduced from analysis of the bifurcation diagram for an associated autonomous system where parameters are fixed. In particular, we show that there is a unique local pullback point attractor associated with each linearly stable equilibrium for the past limit. If there is a smooth stable branch of equilibria over the range of values of the parameter shift, the pullback attractor will remain close to (track) this branch for small enough rates, though larger rates may lead to rate-induced tipping. More generally, we show that one can track certain stable paths that go along several stable branches by pseudo-orbits of the system, for small enough rates. For these local pullback point attractors, we define notions of bifurcation-induced and irreversible rate-induced tipping of the non-autonomous system. In one-dimension, we introduce the notion of forward basin stability and use this to give a number of sufficient conditions for the presence or absence of rate-induced tipping. We apply our results to give criteria for irreversible rate-induced tipping in a conceptual climate model.