Parameter exploration of the raster space activity bundle simulation

Abstract

Research on the transmission of infectious diseases amongst the human population at fine scales is limited. At this level, the dynamics of humans are determined by their social activities and the physical condition of the environment. Raster space AB (activity bundle) simulation is a method to simulate humans' contacts within a space under the framework of an individual space–time activity-based model (ISTAM). The parameters of the raster space AB simulation were explored. For static ABs, the results show the relations between proportion infected and proportion occupied, number of index cases, size of AB, size of cell, ratio of AB and ratio of cell, respectively due to the different spatial distributions of individuals. The most important parameters were number of index cases, size of AB and proportion occupied. For dynamic ABs, analysis shows that movement frequency is more important than movement proportion. An example application of raster space AB simulation shows that this method can be used effectively to quantify the infection risk (proportion infected) at the within-AB level. This research can further the understanding of transmission process at fine scales and is beneficial to the design and testing of control measures.