Abstract
BackgroundThe wave of the coronavirus disease outbreak in 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world. In Algeria, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 25 February, 2020, and the number of confirmed cases of it has increased day after day. To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required.MethodsWe are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. By using the method of least squares and the best fit curve that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, we estimate the epidemic parameter and the basic reproduction number ℜ0. Moreover, we discuss the effect of intervention in a certain period by numerical simulation.ResultsWe find that ℜ0 = 4.1, which implies that the epidemic in Algeria could occur in a strong way. Moreover, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: the intervention has a positive effect on the time delay of the epidemic peak; the epidemic size is almost the same for a short intervention; a large epidemic can occur even if the intervention is long and sufficiently effective.ConclusionAlgeria must implement the strict measures as shown in this study, which could be similar to the one that China has finally adopted.
Highlights
The mathematical models in epidemiology have been used to understand the temporal dynamics of infectious diseases
We use the data of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Algeria, which is available in the epidemiological map in [18]
We have applied a mathematical model to predict the evolution of a COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria
Summary
The mathematical models in epidemiology have been used to understand the temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. The first model used to study the spread of infectious diseases was given by Kermack and Mckendrick [1] in 1927. It is shown that the asymptotic behavior depends on the basic reproduction number R0 (the expected number of secondary cases produced by an infective person in a completely susceptible population) It is described as a threshold value that indicates whether or not the initial outbreak occurs. This work would contribute in understanding the possible spread pattern of COVID-19 in Algeria in order to act appropriately to reduce the epidemic damage, and in showing the applicability of the model-based approach as in [20] to the cases in other countries, which might help us to assess the epidemic risk of COVID-19 worldwide in future
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