Parameter determination for a numerical approach to undeveloped shale gas production estimation: The UK Bowland shale region application

Abstract

The estimation of production potential provides the foundation for commercial viability appraisal of natural resources. Due to uncertainty around production assessment approaches in the unconventional petroleum production field, an appropriate production estimation methodology which address the requisite uncertainty at the planning stage is required to guide energy policy and planning. This study proposes applying the numerical unconventional production estimation method which relies on geological parameters, (pressure, porosity, permeability, compressibility, viscosity and the formation volume factor) as well as the rock extractive index (a measure of technical efficiency). This paper develops a model that estimates the appropriate values for four of these parameters based on a depth correlation matrix while a stochastic process guides two based on known data range. The developed model is integrated with a numerical model to estimate gas production potential. The developed framework is eventually applied to undeveloped shale gas wells located in the Bowland shale, central Britain. The results account for below ground uncertainty and heterogeneity of wells. A sensitivity analysis is applied to consider the relative impacts of individual parameters on production potential. The estimated daily initial gas production rate ranges from 15,000scf to 319,000scf while estimated recovery over 12 years is approximately 1.1bscf in the reference case for wells analyzed.