Paradoxical home temperatures during cold weather: a proof-of-concept study

Anton Korpelainen,Jouni J. K. Jaakkola,Olli Seppänen,Niilo R. I. Ryti

doi:10.1007/s00484-020-01998-7

Anton Korpelainen, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01998-7

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Abstract

There is substantial epidemiological evidence on the associations between cold weather and adverse health effects. Meteorological alarm systems are being developed globally, and generalized protective advice is given to the public based on outdoor exposure parameters. It is not clear how these shared outdoor exposure parameters relate to the individual-level thermal exposure indoors, where the majority of time is spent. We hypothesized a priori that there are opposite correlations between indoor and outdoor temperatures in residential apartments. Apartments were classified into 3 categories according to their response to declining outdoor temperature: under-controlled apartments cool down, controlled apartments maintain constant indoor temperature level, and over-controlled apartments warm up. Outdoor and indoor temperatures were measured in 30-min intervals in 417 residential apartments in 14 buildings in Kotka, Finland, between February and April 2018 with outdoor temperatures ranging from − 20.4 °C to + 14.0 °C. Different apartment types were present in all buildings. Floor and orientation did not explain the divergence. Indoor temperatures below the limit value + 20 °C by building code occurred in 26.2%, 7.9%, and 23.6% of the under-controlled, controlled, and over-controlled apartments, some in conjunction with increasing outdoor temperatures. Indoor temperatures above the limit + 25 °C occurred but were more rare. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that while the home environment may be a source of thermal stress during cold weather, generalized advice for adjusting the heating may lead to paradoxical exposures in some cases. More elaborate conceptualizations of everyday thermal exposures are needed to safely reduce weather-related health risks using shared meteorological alarm systems.

Highlights

There is substantial global evidence on the associations between outdoor temperature and adverse health effects (Bhaskaran et al 2009; Guo et al 2012; Monteiro et al 2012; Ye et al 2012; Gasparrini et al 2015; Ryti et al 2016; Ryti et al 2017; Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2018)
One may ask that if we do not know the actual exposure profiles during the weather events, how well do we really understand weather-related pathogenesis, and how effective can we be at stopping it?. This proof-of-concept study demonstrated that while some apartments may cool during cold weather, some apartments may overheat during the same events
This concept is important for public health professionals and scientists working with weather-related mitigation and adaptation programs

Summary

Introduction

Shared outdoor temperatures are commonly used as the predictors of health effects in a population, and the actual individual exposures or places of exposures during the weather events are not known (Ryti et al 2016). The Network of European Meteorological Services EUMETNET provides real-time warnings of the occurrence, intensity, and substance of extreme weather events occurring throughout Europe (http://www.meteoalarm.eu). The meteorological alarm systems, too, are based on shared exposure parameters such as outdoor temperature. This is necessary since the exposures of the individuals are not known. Thinking, for such a shared system to predict individual exposures and

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