Abstract
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a fragile state, vulnerable to natural disasters and terms of trade shocks. Low commodity prices in 2014-20, a severe drought in 2015-16, and a major earthquake in 2018 softened growth, led to shortages of FX, and contributed to a pre-pandemic build-up of public debt. The pandemic further increased public debt, which is now at high risk of distress, while development needs remain considerable.
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