Abstract
We investigate the impact of papal visits to Italian provinces on abortions from 1979 to 2012. Using administrative data, we find a 10–20% decrease in the number of abortions that commences in the 3rd month and persists until the 14th month after the visits. However, we find no significant change in the number of live births. A decline in unintended pregnancies best explains our results. Papal visits generate intense local media coverage, and likely make salient the Catholic Church’s stance against abortions. We show that papal visits lead to increased church attendance, and that the decline in abortions is greater when the Pope mentions abortion in his speeches.
Highlights
Through history, religion has shaped societies and has been, and in many cases continues to be, a key factor in how people make major life choices
We investigate the impact of papal visits to Italian provinces on abortions from 1979 to 2012
We show that papal visits lead to increased church attendance, and that the decline in abortions is greater when the Pope mentions abortion in his speeches
Summary
Religion has shaped societies and has been, and in many cases continues to be, a key factor in how people make major life choices. The intuition of the indirect effect is readily confirmed in a simple model of contraceptive usage that builds on Levine (2004) In this model, women are forward looking and fully informed of their personal costs of abortion vs birth in the case of an unintended pregnancy. We sketch a simple model of contraceptive usage, and spell out the predictions for the number of unintended pregnancies, abortions and live births in response to a change in the perceived cost of abortion. We show that papal visits within Italy generate widespread coverage in local media, there appears to be an increase in religiosity as measured by church attendance, and the measured decline in abortion is greater during visits where the Pope mentions abortion.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
