Pandemic waves, government response, and bank stock returns: evidence from 36 countries

Abstract

PurposeThe paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bank stock returns over various time scales and frequencies for 36 countries. Moreover, the authors look at the governments' responses to the corona crisis and examine its impact on bank stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe paper applies continuous wavelet transformation to obtain robust estimates of the co-movement (coherency) between confirmed cases and bank stock returns over time and at different time scales. Furthermore, the authors apply fixed effects panel regression to examine the response of bank stocks to domestic COVID-19 policies.FindingsThe results indicate that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases negatively impacts bank stock returns during different waves of the pandemic in the medium-run. However, there is only little dependence in the very short-run. Moreover, bank stock returns positively react to domestic COVID-19 polices. This demonstrates that governmental interventions not only reduce the spread of COVID-19 but are also able to thereby calm financial markets.Originality/valueThe application of wavelet methods to the field of economics and finance is relatively recent and allows the distinction between short-term and long-term effects. Standard econometric methods, in contrast, only operate within the time domain. This paper combines wavelet methods with conventional econometrics to answer the research question.